Where on Earth is headed for ecocide in the next 100 years?

Scientific projections from major bodies like the IPCC and WWF indicate that several specific regions are on a trajectory toward ecological collapse-effectively “ecocide”-within the next century.

This is not happening uniformly; specific “tipping points” make certain areas far more vulnerable than others. The following locations are currently at the highest risk of total ecosystem failure by 2100.

1. The Amazon Rainforest (South America)

The Amazon is approaching a critical tipping point known as “dieback.”

• The Threat: If deforestation reaches 20-25% (we are currently at ~17%), the rainforest will lose its ability to generate its own rainfall.
• The Outcome: Within decades, large swaths of the rainforest could transition into a dry savanna. This would result in the mass extinction of thousands of species, the release of billions of tons of stored carbon, and the collapse of the regional water cycle that supports South American agriculture.
• Timeline: Some models suggest this tipping point could be crossed as early as 2030-2050 if current deforestation and warming trends continue.

2. Tropical Coral Reefs (Global Band)

Coral reefs are likely to be the first major global ecosystem to become functionally extinct.

• The Threat: Marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
• The Outcome: The IPCC projects that at 1.5C of warming (which we are likely to hit in the near future), 70-90% of coral reefs will die. At 2C of warming, 99% will effectively disappear.
• Key Locations: The Great Barrier Reef (Australia), the Coral Triangle (Southeast Asia), and Caribbean reefs. These areas will turn into algae-dominated graveyards, causing the collapse of fisheries that support millions of people.

3. The Arctic and Permafrost Regions (Russia, Canada, Alaska)

The Arctic is warming 3-4 times faster than the rest of the planet.

• The Threat: The melting of sea ice and the thawing of permafrost (frozen ground).
• The Outcome: We are headed for an “ice-free Arctic summer” likely before 2050. More dangerously, the thawing permafrost in Siberia and Northern Canada threatens to release massive amounts of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) and ancient pathogens. This region faces a complete physical transformation from ice/tundra to a radically different landscape, destabilizing infrastructure and local ecosystems.

4. Low-Lying Atoll Nations (Pacific & Indian Oceans)

For these nations, “ecocide” effectively means the physical disappearance of the country.

• The Threat: Sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion.
• Key Locations: Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands, and the Maldives.
• The Outcome: These nations are likely to become uninhabitable within the next 50-80 years, not just due to being submerged, but because rising seas will contaminate the freshwater lenses (groundwater) and kill coastal agriculture long before the land is fully underwater.

5. The Sahel Region (Africa)

The transition zone between the Sahara Desert and the Sudanian Savanna is facing extreme desertification.

• The Threat: Climate change-induced drought and overuse of land (overgrazing/deforestation) due to population pressure.
• The Outcome: The desert is expanding southward. This ecological collapse drives conflict, famine, and mass migration. The region is currently stuck in a vicious cycle where degrading land leads to resource wars, which prevents land restoration.

6. The “Global South” Megacities (Asia & Africa)

While not “wilderness,” the ecological systems supporting major human populations in specific cities are headed for collapse.

• The Threat: The “wet-bulb” temperature threshold (heat + humidity too high for human survival) and groundwater depletion.
• Key Locations: Jakarta, Indonesia (sinking due to aquifer drainage); Delhi, India (facing unlivable heatwaves and water scarcity); and the Indus Valley in Pakistan.
• The Outcome: These areas face a collapse of the “urban ecosystem”-the breakdown of water, cooling, and food systems required to keep millions of people alive.

Summary of Tipping Points

Scientists identify nine core tipping points that, if crossed, create irreversible damage. We are currently at risk of crossing five of them:

1. Collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
2. Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
3. Die-off of low-latitude coral reefs.
4. Thawing of permafrost.
5. Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – a major ocean current system.

What About the Caspian Sea?

The Caspian Sea-the world’s largest inland body of water-is absolutely on the list of impending ecological catastrophes. In fact, many scientists argue it is currently experiencing the fastest and most impactful drop in water levels of any major lake on Earth.

While the Aral Sea disaster is often cited as a history lesson, the Caspian Sea is widely viewed as a “sequel” happening in real-time, but on a much larger geopolitical scale.

Here is why the Caspian Sea is facing ecocide within the next century.

1. The Projected Collapse (The “Great Drop”)

The Caspian is an endorheic basin (a closed system), meaning it acts like a giant bathtub with no drain. It loses water only through evaporation.

• The Projection: A major study published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment projects that water levels in the Caspian could drop by 9 to 18 meters (30 to 60 feet) by the end of this century.
• The Cause: Rising temperatures are dramatically increasing evaporation, while the primary source of refill-the Volga River-is shrinking due to lack of snowmelt and agricultural overuse in Russia.

2. The Death of the Northern Shelf

The Caspian is not a uniform deep bowl. It is divided into a very deep Southern basin and a very shallow Northern shelf (bordering Russia and Kazakhstan).

• The Threat: The Northern Caspian is only about 5-6 meters deep on average.
• The Outcome: If the water level drops by the projected 9+ meters, the entire Northern Caspian-about one-third of the sea’s surface area-will simply vanish. It will turn into a vast salt flat, similar to the Aral Sea, creating dust storms plagued by toxic salt and chemical residue.

3. Biodiversity Extinction Event

The shallow Northern Caspian is the “nursery” of the sea. It is where the food chain begins and where key species breed. Its disappearance guarantees the extinction of iconic species.

• The Caspian Seal: The only marine mammal in the region. They require ice sheets on the Northern shelf to breed. As the water retreats and the winters warm (preventing ice formation), their breeding grounds are physically disappearing. Their population has already crashed by 90% since the start of the 20th century.
• The Sturgeon: 90% of the world’s remaining sturgeon (the source of caviar) rely on the shallow northern waters to access the Volga river for spawning. As the sea retreats, the river delta is becoming disconnected from the sea, literally blocking the fish from reproducing.

4. A Toxic “Petro-Ecosystem”

Unlike the Amazon or the Arctic, the Caspian is heavily industrialized. It is the birthplace of the modern offshore oil industry.

• The Issue: The seabed is crisscrossed with active pipelines and thousands of oil wells. As the water level drops, this infrastructure becomes exposed to wind and weather, increasing the risk of massive spills.
• The Pollution: The sea is currently suffering from “anoxia” (loss of oxygen) in its deeper parts due to agricultural runoff and oil pollution, creating dead zones where nothing can survive.

5. Geopolitical Chaos

The shrinking of the Caspian is not just an environmental issue; it is a major security threat.

• Moving Borders: The maritime borders of the five surrounding nations (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan) are defined by the shoreline. As the sea evaporates, the shoreline moves tens of kilometers inward.
• The Conflict: Who owns the newly exposed land? Who owns the oil fields that were once underwater but are now on dry land? The retreating water is actively destabilizing the delicate treaties between these nations.

Summary

If the Amazon is dying from deforestation and the Arctic from melting, the Caspian is dying from desiccation (drying out). It is effectively evaporating faster than it can be refilled, and without massive intervention to restore flow from the Volga River, the Northern Caspian will likely cease to exist as a functional marine ecosystem by 2100.